Altcoins
Did Altcoin Season End Before It Could Start?
Changing market conditions creating a bearish atmosphere are harming the potential of an altcoin season.
Bitcoin has received market support due to growing demand generated by a successful BTC spot ETF run.
Is Altcoin Season Over?
Altcoin season, also known as “altseason,” is a period in the cryptocurrency market where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin. This phenomenon is mainly identified by observing two key indicators: the dominance of Bitcoin and Altcoin Price Performance.
Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization held by Bitcoin. During the second season, this dominance diminishes as investors move their capital from Bitcoin to various altcoins. A notable drop in Bitcoin Dominance indicates that altcoins are gaining a larger market share.
This decline was last seen in January of this year, when BTC dominance dropped sharply from 54% to 50%. However, since then, dominance has seen an upward trend, reaching 55% last month.
This is BTC’s biggest dominance in the crypto market since the March 2021 crash, when the same dominance fell from 70% to 40% in a matter of days.
Learn more: What is Altcoin Season? A complete guide
Bitcoin dominance. Source: Trading View
Along with Bitcoin’s diminishing dominance, altcoins typically see substantial price increases. This surge in altcoin prices, which often outpaces Bitcoin’s growth, is a clear signal of a new season. Investors seek higher returns by diversifying their portfolios into altcoins, which drives up their prices.
Generally, when 75% of the top 50 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, perform better than BTC over a three-month period, the altcoin season is considered active and successful.
However, over the past 90 days, only eight cryptocurrencies have managed to outperform Bitcoin. Even the meme coin craze and hype surrounding the one-time approval of the Ethereum ETF failed to drive alts higher.
This indicates a disappointing answer to the question above: the altcoin season ended before it could even begin.
When will the next Altcoin season take place?
The answer to this question is not simple since volatility of the crypto market makes everything very uncertain. Additionally, developments in macro-financial markets have also impacted the direction of cryptocurrencies.
However, a trend has emerged since 2022. August 2022 marked the penultimate alt season, after which it took six months for the Bitcoin season to begin. The next and latest altcoin season began eight months later, in January of this year. Now, five months later, we are once again witnessing Bitcoin season.
Learn more: 11 Cryptos to Add to Your Portfolio Ahead of Altcoin Season
So, if this trend continues, investors can expect altcoin season will start in approximately seven to eight months. This places the potential timeline for the next alternate season at February 2025.
However, it is wise to be wary of signals from the broader market and macro-financial markets.
Disclaimer
In accordance with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to providing accurate and unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always do your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decision. Please note that our Terms and conditions, Privacy PolicyAnd Disclaimer have been updated.